Saturday, May 17, 2008
Skype World
Skype has just come out with a spectacular package. Three SkypeIn numbers, a flat 100 dollars to call any landline phone in Europe, North America, Japan, Korea, China, Australia, New Zealand, and other countries... for ONE YEAR flat!
Thursday, May 15, 2008
The misunderstanding that got us into this mess
"The idea was that regulators always make mistakes... Regulators are human and are bound to make mistakes, but markets are also human and they are also bound to make mistakes."
George Soros
George Soros
Clueless for the last 40 years, why should that change now
They think their competition is what is on the new car market... Car dealerships won't even take SUVs now. Huge numbers of vehicles are being dumped on the market at firesale prices. Why would anyone buy a new car? Buy a used one instead. You will never make up the cost of the new car by some measly improvement in mpg.
And by the way, they said hybrids were stupid and they were going to come out with hydrogen cars. Well, for the foreseeable future, the hydrogen will come from oil. They cannot even get gasoline-powered cars to work right. They cannot get LPG powered cars to work at scale. There are 1,000,000 cars in Italy, 100,000 taxis in Tokyo, etc., running on LPG, and that has been for the last 30 years... How are they going to get hydrogen cars to work if they cannot even get gasoline powered cars to work properly?
Guess who is going to get the trillion dollar bill for their unfunded pension liabilities? Take a look in the mirror.
http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080514/AUTO01/805140386
And by the way, they said hybrids were stupid and they were going to come out with hydrogen cars. Well, for the foreseeable future, the hydrogen will come from oil. They cannot even get gasoline-powered cars to work right. They cannot get LPG powered cars to work at scale. There are 1,000,000 cars in Italy, 100,000 taxis in Tokyo, etc., running on LPG, and that has been for the last 30 years... How are they going to get hydrogen cars to work if they cannot even get gasoline powered cars to work properly?
Guess who is going to get the trillion dollar bill for their unfunded pension liabilities? Take a look in the mirror.
http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080514/AUTO01/805140386
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
NPR was planning a series from China, and by coincidence they arrived just a few days ago
They were actually conducting an interview when the earthquake started.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=90380404
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=90411524
http://www.npr.org/blogs/chengdu
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=90380404
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=90411524
http://www.npr.org/blogs/chengdu
Things about which I have been wrong
I thought SARS would really cause serious problems since it was at times explosively contagious. A single person infected an entire building. Entire hospitals were infected. People were infected during a single elevator ride.
What avoided an epidemic was that a mechanical means of making the virus airborne, such as a ventilation fan or nebulizers, was required, or someone coughing directly on another person, and just a lot of effort and a lot of dumb luck says the NIH.
What avoided an epidemic was that a mechanical means of making the virus airborne, such as a ventilation fan or nebulizers, was required, or someone coughing directly on another person, and just a lot of effort and a lot of dumb luck says the NIH.
Things about which I have been wrong
I was just amazed that nothing substantial happened with Y2K when the computer clock year went from 99 to 00. I mean, Windows doesn't work normally to begin with... wonder what would have happened had it been Vista...
If the soul can exist without the body
If the soul can exist without the body, then
Why when you have a stroke do you lose some of your abilities?
Why do people who hit their heads in car accidents undergo personality changes?
Why is a lobotomy possible?
Why can we get drunk?
Why is anesthesia possible?
http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/229
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/13/opinion/13brooks.html?em&ex=1210824000&en=787e405a3a54e904&ei=5087%0A
Why when you have a stroke do you lose some of your abilities?
Why do people who hit their heads in car accidents undergo personality changes?
Why is a lobotomy possible?
Why can we get drunk?
Why is anesthesia possible?
http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/229
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/13/opinion/13brooks.html?em&ex=1210824000&en=787e405a3a54e904&ei=5087%0A
Phoenix Mars Lander may give us the answer to the question of the ages
We may be on the verge of the discovery of extraterrestrial life.
Although there is no sound, watch this simulation. You will see just how difficult it is to deliver a probe to the surface of Mars.
Go to YouTube and watch it in fullscreen. It is in High Def and is spectacular.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHAsRjcLP4o&feature=related
Although there is no sound, watch this simulation. You will see just how difficult it is to deliver a probe to the surface of Mars.
Go to YouTube and watch it in fullscreen. It is in High Def and is spectacular.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHAsRjcLP4o&feature=related
The Vatican knows the discovery of life on Mars or First Contact is coming
They are trying to spin it by saying now that of course it is possible.
Hmm, they didn't mention this in the last 2,000 years.
They also did not mention DNA, gravity, neuroscience, public health, radiation, or the Earth going around the Sun... until they were forced to.
Amazing how "infallible" they are.
http://www.reuters.com/article/lifestyleMolt/idUSL146364620080514
Hmm, they didn't mention this in the last 2,000 years.
They also did not mention DNA, gravity, neuroscience, public health, radiation, or the Earth going around the Sun... until they were forced to.
Amazing how "infallible" they are.
http://www.reuters.com/article/lifestyleMolt/idUSL146364620080514
Rush said there is 700 years' worth of oil left
Great!
Where is it?
Either he is wrong, or else he is withholding it.
It cannot be the former.
"... there are also trillions of dollars of gold in the oceans. Just because a resource exists doesn't mean you can devise a cost-effective way to utilize it."
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3969
Actually, I will go him one better: Why doesn't he collect all the sunlight that strikes the Earth for one year? That would run the entire planet for 7,500 years. Please do that. Thank you.
Where is it?
Either he is wrong, or else he is withholding it.
It cannot be the former.
"... there are also trillions of dollars of gold in the oceans. Just because a resource exists doesn't mean you can devise a cost-effective way to utilize it."
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3969
Actually, I will go him one better: Why doesn't he collect all the sunlight that strikes the Earth for one year? That would run the entire planet for 7,500 years. Please do that. Thank you.
If you have an SUV
If you have a gas guzzler, it probably does not make economic sense to sell it now.
Gasoline, even at $4 a gallon, is probably a small fraction of your expense of owning and operating a car, which the AAA says costs about $8,000 a year for a small sedan and about $10,000 a year for the larger model (about $30 per day), assuming you drive 15,000 miles per year (which is 300 miles per week, which is 40 miles per day). Gas at $4 at even 20 mpg, is costing you on average about $8 per day. So of that $30 per day it costs you to own an operate a car, only about 1/3 is the cost of gasoline. Even at $7 dollars a gallon, the gasoline would still cost you less than $15 per day. Add to that cost your lifetime risk of being killed in a car accident of about 1 in 70 and your much higher lifetime risk of being injured in a car accident, and the cost of the roads that you pay for in taxes, and that would easily add another $3,000 dollars to your annual cost.
It would, however, make sense to get rid of every car you do not need.
When I was little, every family had one car. We lived.
If you need a car, there are so many used cars flooding the market now that you could probably pick one up for a song.
The goal: Get through the next 4 years without buying a new car.
In 2010, many automakers will begin selling electric cars. Give them a couple of years to work out the bugs before you buy. Batteries are probably going to improve dramatically. An electric car uses half the energy of a car to move you the same distance. Electricity is cheaper than gas. The electric car should cost you the equivalent of about $1 per gallon. But remember that the cost of the gasoline is a small part of cost of owning and operating a car.
http://www.marketwire.com/mw/release.do?id=840241
http://www.oasisdesign.net/transport/cars/cost.htm
Gasoline, even at $4 a gallon, is probably a small fraction of your expense of owning and operating a car, which the AAA says costs about $8,000 a year for a small sedan and about $10,000 a year for the larger model (about $30 per day), assuming you drive 15,000 miles per year (which is 300 miles per week, which is 40 miles per day). Gas at $4 at even 20 mpg, is costing you on average about $8 per day. So of that $30 per day it costs you to own an operate a car, only about 1/3 is the cost of gasoline. Even at $7 dollars a gallon, the gasoline would still cost you less than $15 per day. Add to that cost your lifetime risk of being killed in a car accident of about 1 in 70 and your much higher lifetime risk of being injured in a car accident, and the cost of the roads that you pay for in taxes, and that would easily add another $3,000 dollars to your annual cost.
It would, however, make sense to get rid of every car you do not need.
When I was little, every family had one car. We lived.
If you need a car, there are so many used cars flooding the market now that you could probably pick one up for a song.
The goal: Get through the next 4 years without buying a new car.
In 2010, many automakers will begin selling electric cars. Give them a couple of years to work out the bugs before you buy. Batteries are probably going to improve dramatically. An electric car uses half the energy of a car to move you the same distance. Electricity is cheaper than gas. The electric car should cost you the equivalent of about $1 per gallon. But remember that the cost of the gasoline is a small part of cost of owning and operating a car.
http://www.marketwire.com/mw/release.do?id=840241
http://www.oasisdesign.net/transport/cars/cost.htm
The spectre of 'stagflation"
The top story at The Independent today.
Inflation expected to reach 10% per annum in a few months.
UK home energy bills could jump 40% in one year.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/the-spectre-of-stagflation-827745.html
Inflation expected to reach 10% per annum in a few months.
UK home energy bills could jump 40% in one year.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/the-spectre-of-stagflation-827745.html
How to cut Social Security
The US government increases Social Security, government pensions, etc., according to the official inflation rate. It also pays out interest on US treasury bonds based on the official inflation rate.
Guess who calculates the official inflation rate?
For the last 25 years, they have been manipulating the official inflation rate by, for example, excluding food and gasoline, so that the government pays out less and less. As someone observed: The inflation rate makes perfect sense if you don't eat and you don't drive.
The official rate now is 3% per year. If they calculated using the methods they used 30 years ago, the inflation rate would be 10%. So, this year, they will pay out 3% more in Social Security benefits, and that money will buy 7% less. They will pay interest on bonds of about 4%, and that will buy 6% less. This is how you cut without actually cutting where everyone can see. Inflation is about to get a lot worse. At this rate, you could see the purchasing power of these payments drop by half in 5 to 10 years.
Guess who calculates the official inflation rate?
For the last 25 years, they have been manipulating the official inflation rate by, for example, excluding food and gasoline, so that the government pays out less and less. As someone observed: The inflation rate makes perfect sense if you don't eat and you don't drive.
The official rate now is 3% per year. If they calculated using the methods they used 30 years ago, the inflation rate would be 10%. So, this year, they will pay out 3% more in Social Security benefits, and that money will buy 7% less. They will pay interest on bonds of about 4%, and that will buy 6% less. This is how you cut without actually cutting where everyone can see. Inflation is about to get a lot worse. At this rate, you could see the purchasing power of these payments drop by half in 5 to 10 years.
Monday, May 5, 2008
The shunning of the dollar and the braking for peak oil
Two of the biggest under-the-radar stories of all time, especially if you live in the reality-free zone that is the US: the dollar collapse and peak oil.
For years, the US has been printing dollars, buying oil, and selling treasury bonds for those dollars, in effect buying oil with promissory notes. We also ran up huge fiscal and trade deficits.
For nearly 30 years, due to overproduction of oil, there was little conservation, little investment in alternative energy, and the construction of an urban landscape that cannot function without cheap oil. The problem is not that oil has become too expensive; the problem is that for far too long, oil was too cheap. All that did was cause the oil industry to go bust and hollow out, greatly reduce the number of drilling rigs and people who knew how to operate them, discourage generations of engineering students from entering the field, and teach everyone to treat energy and food with utter contempt.
These two basic problems are about to grab each other by the tail in a vicious circle.
In the short term, the price of oil will go up, and it will go down. The dollar will go up, and it will go down. Do not avert your gaze from the brick wall we are approaching.
The price of oil and the supply of oil follow supply and demand... sort of. The problem is the supply and demand of oil are always in disequilibrium, because it can take significant amounts of time for price to catch up with supply and for supply to catch up with price. Texas used to be the "swing producer" (the one that could ramp up supply or ramp down supply quickly in response to price swings). For the last 30 years, Saudi Arabia has been the swing producer. Now, there is no swing producer. So what is different this time is that no one has excess oil production capacity, and since all the easy-to-pump oil is gone, new drilling projects now take 10 years or more to implement. Over the last three years, although the price of oil has substantially increased in all major currencies, the amount of oil pumped has remained at about 85 million barrels per day. So supply is clearly not responding to demand.
On the other hand, because the rest of the world is developing so rapidly, demand is not, and will not, respond to the limited supply until there is a global recession... and that would be only a temporary respite.
We are about to get a front seat view of what happens when supply and demand cannot respond rapidly.
The Cantarell oil field off the coast of Mexico is the second largest oil field ever discovered. It provides the US with about 7% of the oil the US uses. Even if Mexico started drilling in deep water today, because of the complexity of the drilling, the new oil would not flow for 10 years. In order to continue to export oil to the US the way Mexico has been, the Cantarell field therefore has to produce oil at the rate it has been for the next 10 years in order to continue to export oil to the US the way it has been. There is only 1 year of oil left in the Cantarell field. So, Mexico has two choices: continue pumping at the present rate and then have nothing to export for 9 years, or drop pumping immediately by 90% and export at the rate of 10% for 10 years. Either way, Mexico is about to rapidly decrease the amount of oil it exports to the US. I suppose in the next few months to a year, Mexico will have an enormous fiscal crisis because their oil exports provide the Mexican government with half of its revenue. (This is an extreme oversimplification for brevity.)
It is not like there were no warnings.
Prince Abdullah, now King of Saudi Arabia, said to the Gulf Cooperation Council in 1998:
"The oil boom is over and will not return. All of us must get used to a different lifestyle."
The King said in April 2008 that he had "ordered some new oil discoveries left untapped to preserve oil wealth ... for future generations".
In April 2008, the vice president of one of Russia's biggest oil companies said that Russian oil output is in longterm decline.
So whether they can't pump or they won't pump makes no difference. They aren't.
The dollar has dropped by nearly half against the euro, and could drop further against the euro and other major currencies. This is part of the reason that the price of oil has risen to about 5 times in price in dollars; it has risen to about 4 times in yen, and about 3 times in euros.
There is wholesale buying of oil futures using all the dollars lying around because who knows how much a dollar will be worth in 5 years, but a barrel of oil will still be a barrel of oil in 2013.
Iran no longer accepts dollars for oil and only accepts euros and yen. Even some Japanese are starting to sell US treasury bonds because they lost 7% in value in two months, and they think the dollar will fall even further against the yen.
Ultimately, the oil exporters are doing us a favor. It is better to hit the brakes before we hit the brick wall rather than run into it at full speed.
Everything President Carter said is coming true.
For years, the US has been printing dollars, buying oil, and selling treasury bonds for those dollars, in effect buying oil with promissory notes. We also ran up huge fiscal and trade deficits.
For nearly 30 years, due to overproduction of oil, there was little conservation, little investment in alternative energy, and the construction of an urban landscape that cannot function without cheap oil. The problem is not that oil has become too expensive; the problem is that for far too long, oil was too cheap. All that did was cause the oil industry to go bust and hollow out, greatly reduce the number of drilling rigs and people who knew how to operate them, discourage generations of engineering students from entering the field, and teach everyone to treat energy and food with utter contempt.
These two basic problems are about to grab each other by the tail in a vicious circle.
In the short term, the price of oil will go up, and it will go down. The dollar will go up, and it will go down. Do not avert your gaze from the brick wall we are approaching.
The price of oil and the supply of oil follow supply and demand... sort of. The problem is the supply and demand of oil are always in disequilibrium, because it can take significant amounts of time for price to catch up with supply and for supply to catch up with price. Texas used to be the "swing producer" (the one that could ramp up supply or ramp down supply quickly in response to price swings). For the last 30 years, Saudi Arabia has been the swing producer. Now, there is no swing producer. So what is different this time is that no one has excess oil production capacity, and since all the easy-to-pump oil is gone, new drilling projects now take 10 years or more to implement. Over the last three years, although the price of oil has substantially increased in all major currencies, the amount of oil pumped has remained at about 85 million barrels per day. So supply is clearly not responding to demand.
On the other hand, because the rest of the world is developing so rapidly, demand is not, and will not, respond to the limited supply until there is a global recession... and that would be only a temporary respite.
We are about to get a front seat view of what happens when supply and demand cannot respond rapidly.
The Cantarell oil field off the coast of Mexico is the second largest oil field ever discovered. It provides the US with about 7% of the oil the US uses. Even if Mexico started drilling in deep water today, because of the complexity of the drilling, the new oil would not flow for 10 years. In order to continue to export oil to the US the way Mexico has been, the Cantarell field therefore has to produce oil at the rate it has been for the next 10 years in order to continue to export oil to the US the way it has been. There is only 1 year of oil left in the Cantarell field. So, Mexico has two choices: continue pumping at the present rate and then have nothing to export for 9 years, or drop pumping immediately by 90% and export at the rate of 10% for 10 years. Either way, Mexico is about to rapidly decrease the amount of oil it exports to the US. I suppose in the next few months to a year, Mexico will have an enormous fiscal crisis because their oil exports provide the Mexican government with half of its revenue. (This is an extreme oversimplification for brevity.)
It is not like there were no warnings.
Prince Abdullah, now King of Saudi Arabia, said to the Gulf Cooperation Council in 1998:
"The oil boom is over and will not return. All of us must get used to a different lifestyle."
The King said in April 2008 that he had "ordered some new oil discoveries left untapped to preserve oil wealth ... for future generations".
In April 2008, the vice president of one of Russia's biggest oil companies said that Russian oil output is in longterm decline.
So whether they can't pump or they won't pump makes no difference. They aren't.
The dollar has dropped by nearly half against the euro, and could drop further against the euro and other major currencies. This is part of the reason that the price of oil has risen to about 5 times in price in dollars; it has risen to about 4 times in yen, and about 3 times in euros.
There is wholesale buying of oil futures using all the dollars lying around because who knows how much a dollar will be worth in 5 years, but a barrel of oil will still be a barrel of oil in 2013.
Iran no longer accepts dollars for oil and only accepts euros and yen. Even some Japanese are starting to sell US treasury bonds because they lost 7% in value in two months, and they think the dollar will fall even further against the yen.
Ultimately, the oil exporters are doing us a favor. It is better to hit the brakes before we hit the brick wall rather than run into it at full speed.
Everything President Carter said is coming true.
Drill more! Our problems will be solved!
This is just amazing.
Samuelson says drill more. It is all Congress' fault because they won't allow drilling in Alaska and offshore. Doing so would produce 30 billion barrels...
Wait a minute, the world uses 0.1 billion barrels per day, so that would run the world for... about 1 year! How would that do anything other than postpone the inevitable for just a short time? And if we do that, all the oil reserves in the US really will be gone.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/134850
I can't believe Samuelson is that ignorant, so the only other possibility I can think of is that he is deliberately trying to direct blame at something that really isn't the cause of the problem. If you can think of another explanation for his baffling assertion, please let me know.
Samuelson says drill more. It is all Congress' fault because they won't allow drilling in Alaska and offshore. Doing so would produce 30 billion barrels...
Wait a minute, the world uses 0.1 billion barrels per day, so that would run the world for... about 1 year! How would that do anything other than postpone the inevitable for just a short time? And if we do that, all the oil reserves in the US really will be gone.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/134850
I can't believe Samuelson is that ignorant, so the only other possibility I can think of is that he is deliberately trying to direct blame at something that really isn't the cause of the problem. If you can think of another explanation for his baffling assertion, please let me know.
Limbaugh and OxyContin
I said to one of my friends that I thought the only reason Rush could stand the pain of listening to himself was because he was taking so much OxyContin.
She replied, "Oh, I thought it was because OxyContin makes you deaf".
http://prescriptiondesk.com/dangerous-prescription-drugs/oxycontin.htm
She replied, "Oh, I thought it was because OxyContin makes you deaf".
http://prescriptiondesk.com/dangerous-prescription-drugs/oxycontin.htm
Today is Children's Day in Japan
This was one of my favorites. Right up there with Christmas and Halloween and New Year.
My grandfather used to hoist a big paper carp, called koinobori, in front of the house on a bamboo pole.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Koinobori
Although the newer cloth and nylon ones are much more durable, there is nothing like the way the paper ones move in the wind.
Eventually, of course, the paper one tore and went flying in pieces down the street... and I ran after the pieces and brought them back and taped it back together...
And how about one over 300 feet long!
My grandfather used to hoist a big paper carp, called koinobori, in front of the house on a bamboo pole.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Koinobori
Although the newer cloth and nylon ones are much more durable, there is nothing like the way the paper ones move in the wind.
Eventually, of course, the paper one tore and went flying in pieces down the street... and I ran after the pieces and brought them back and taped it back together...
And how about one over 300 feet long!
If you have a lot of frequent flyer miles salted up
I would use them up as soon as possible.
Give them away. Send your parents to a nice hotel for the weekend and use your miles.
Aloha just went bankrupt, and all the Aloha miles are worthless.
More mergers are on the horizon.
If everyone tries to use their miles at the same time, all the available tickets will be used up, and in effect, if there is nothing to buy, your miles will become worthless.
Give them away. Send your parents to a nice hotel for the weekend and use your miles.
Aloha just went bankrupt, and all the Aloha miles are worthless.
More mergers are on the horizon.
If everyone tries to use their miles at the same time, all the available tickets will be used up, and in effect, if there is nothing to buy, your miles will become worthless.
Some used car dealers are no longer accepting SUVs
There is about to be a glut of used cars on the market. People are trying to sell cars they don't really need.
This means that if you need to sell a car, do it as soon as possible.
If you need to buy a car, look at a used one... but be careful of the Katrina fixed up ones...
If you have a gas guzzler, no matter how high gas goes... and it could go to 10 dollars a gallon in the next few years... that is what it already is in Europe... it may not make sense to sell your car at a huge loss and buy a hybrid now... you may never make up the increased gas cost.
Try to make it to 2012 with what you have. Toyota and Honda are coming out with plug-in hybrids around 2010, and the bugs should be out of them by 2012... the electricity cost should be the equivalent of about a dollar a gallon. If the photovoltaic prices fall by 75% as forecast, you could charge your car for free. The batteries should be much better by then too.
This means that if you need to sell a car, do it as soon as possible.
If you need to buy a car, look at a used one... but be careful of the Katrina fixed up ones...
If you have a gas guzzler, no matter how high gas goes... and it could go to 10 dollars a gallon in the next few years... that is what it already is in Europe... it may not make sense to sell your car at a huge loss and buy a hybrid now... you may never make up the increased gas cost.
Try to make it to 2012 with what you have. Toyota and Honda are coming out with plug-in hybrids around 2010, and the bugs should be out of them by 2012... the electricity cost should be the equivalent of about a dollar a gallon. If the photovoltaic prices fall by 75% as forecast, you could charge your car for free. The batteries should be much better by then too.
Sunday, May 4, 2008
What is the most dangerous animal in the world?
It is not a lion or a shark.
The most dangerous animal is the mosquito.
It causes one-half billion cases of malaria every year and more than a million deaths.
One of my cousins recently had encephalitis. Pigs and birds are reservoirs of the virus. It is transmitted to humans by mosquitoes. She was in a coma for nearly a year and had to have extensive rehabilitation, but she is fine now.
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