Sunday, November 23, 2008

How Citibank is pronounced in Japanese

Believe it or not, it is pronounced "Shittybank".

Wanna bet they announce a government bailout by Monday?

We need to fix the way we count in English, among other things

At least for pedagogical purposes, we should change the way numbers are read aloud.

I mean, what is eleven?
What is nineteen? nine plus ten?
What is twenty? two and tens?
What on Earth is that?

In, for example, Chinese and Japanese, numbers are read aloud in the following way.

one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine,
ten

ten-one, ten-two, ten-three, ten-four, ten-five, ten-six, ten-seven, ten-eight, ten-nine,
two tens

two tens-one, two tens-two, two tens-three, two tens-four, two tens-five, two tens-six, two tens-seven, two tens-eight, two tens-nine,
three tens

The absurdity in the way we read numbers aloud in English was exceeded only by the way in which numbers were read aloud in French. For example, "81" was read aloud as "four twenties one". Huh? Left over from Babylonian mathematics? But then, the French don't pronounce the last half of most of their words... but you have to remember how the unpronounced parts are spelled because if the next word begins in a vowel, you have to pronounce the otherwise unpronounced preceding consonant. It would be as if the English word "an" were always pronounced "a", except if the next word begins with a vowel, in which case suddenly you have to remember what unpronounced consonant is contained in the word "a".

There aren't spelling contests in many languages because the irregularities are so few. That English spelling contests are such a big deal says something about English spelling... and it is not good.

An Englishman apparently once made a comment about Sanskrit and how it was so strange that a letter at the end of a word could affect the pronunciation of letters far preceding it. The response was, "Oh, you mean like in English?"

though through and thorough

Some silly things in English spelling really need to be fixed.

The spellings of the above three words would be an excellent place to start. The amount of time people spend misreading and checking the spelling of the above three words is idiotic.

tho thru thoro

would do just fine.

American use of quotation marks is nonsensical

Americans move commas, periods, etc., inside quotation marks, whether or not the punctation mark is part of the quote. This is confusing and makes no sense. Another triumph of form over function.

The British put quotation marks around the quoted material.
How sensible.

Another person who should have read Oedipus more carefully

Representative John Dingell (D-Michigan).
His many years of opposing fuel efficiency improvements to "protect" the US auto industry have now helped to destroy it.

See if you can find a copy of a 1993 Frontline episode entitled "The Heartbeat of America". You will be absolutely shocked to hear how the identical problems have been going on for 20 years.

But if the Big Three go bankrupt and default, that could cause some of their suppliers to go bankrupt... and in this just-in-time world, that would be a disaster for everyone.

Monday, November 17, 2008

Wishing for a thing never made it so... except maybe in A.I.

Information has been doubling for millenia if not for millions of years.

In the past, one could dream of something, but would not live long enough to see it.

We are now in such a steep part of the curve that we can dream something as young people and live long enough to see it come true.

Think personal computers.

Another dream of the ages

Proof that there are planets orbiting other stars.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HR_8799

Sunday, November 16, 2008

Oh, irony of ironies

The financial wizards, in their delusional attempt to kill off the last bit of Risk by creating credit default swaps for everything, have now totally succeeded in making Risk maximal for every single financial endeavor!
No one trusts anyone. No one will lend to anyone. So now everyone is at maximal risk and companies that were doing just fine may suddenly die because they cannot get short term loans. Airlines are now finding that no one will allow them to hedge for oil price fluctuations for 2009, so now they have one less tool to avoid bankruptcy.

A vast caravan of mathematical models, wandering across the landscape, in search of an idea...

Sounds like the people who wanted to make it morning in American but wound up making the evening come sooner.

Sounds like the people who wanted to make us safer but wound up destroying our security.

Sounds like the people who wanted to secure our hegemony but wound up having everything slip through our fingers.


Way to go.


I think they should all have read Oedipus more carefully.

Oedipus was the son of Laius and Jocasta. Before his birth, it was prophesied that he would kill his father and marry his mother. To avoid this fate, the child was given to a herdsman who was told to kill him. The herdsman, out of pity, and yet fearing to disobey, instead gave him to another herdsman. The second herdsman took the infant Oedipus to his master, the king of Corinth, Polybus, who adopted him as his own son. Oedipus then lived as the crown prince of Corinth. Many years later, Oedipus is told that he is not the real son of Polybus and, to confirm this, he seeks help from an Oracle and is told that he is destined to kill his father and mate with his mother. In his attempt to evade the dictates of the Oracle, he decides to flee from home to Thebes, on the other side of the mountains.

As Oedipus was travelling by horse to Thebes, he came to a crossroads where he met a chariot driven by Laius. A dispute arose and Oedipus killed Laius. Continuing his journey, Oedipus encountered a Sphinx, who stopped any traveler and asked him a riddle that no one had yet been able to solve. If the traveler failed, he was eaten by the Sphinx. The riddle was: "What walks on four feet in the morning, two in the afternoon and three at night?". The answer was: "Man; as an infant, he crawls on all fours, as an adult, he walks on two legs and, in old age, he relies on a walking stick". Oedipus solved the riddle and the Sphinx threw herself to her death. The gratitude of the Thebans led them to appoint Oedipus as their king. Oedipus was also given the recent widow Jocasta as his wife, and they had four children.
Many years after the marriage of Oedipus and Jocasta, a plague struck the city of Thebes. Oedipus, with his typical hubris, asserted that he could, and would, end the plague. He sent Creon, Jocasta's brother, to the Oracle at Delphi and found that the murderer of the former King Laius must be found and killed or exiled. In a search for the identity of the killer, Oedipus sends for the blind prophet, Tiresias, who warns him not to try to find the killer. In an angry exchange, Tiresias tells Oedipus that he is the killer and suggests that he is living in shame and does not know who his true parents are. Undaunted, Oedipus continues his search. When a messenger arrives from Corinth with the news that King Polybus is dead, Oedipus, still regarding Polybus as his true father, worries about the part of the prophecy that dictates he will mate with his own mother. The messenger reassures him with the news that he is adopted. Jocasta then realizes who Oedipus is and goes into the palace to kill herself. Oedipus seeks verification of the messenger's story from the very same herdsman who was to have left Oedipus to die as a baby. From that herdsman, Oedipus learns that the infant raised as the adopted son of Polybus and Merope was the son of Laius and Jocasta. Thus, Oedipus finally realizes that he had killed his own father, King Laius, at the crossroads, and as consequence, had married his own mother, Jocasta.
Oedipus goes in search of Jocasta and finds she has killed herself.

Saturday, November 15, 2008

SPOT SHORTAGES ARE COMING

The amounts of metal ores, grain, coal, etc. (that is, materials that are raw materials for goods such as steel, bread, concrete, and electricity) that are being shipped have dropped off a cliff.

Think about that. The shipping of the entire planet has been paralyzed. What has done this is not a natural catastrophe, but a man-made one: the nearly total freezing of credit worldwide.

There is now no one who will issue entirely routine letters of credit and loans necessary for ships to take goods from one part of the world to another. What this means is that any place that is importing metal ore, grain, coal, etc., has been drawing down what it has in storage for more than a month. No company wants to admit this is happening because their stock price would collapse. So what will happen is that the company will suddenly cease functioning. There will suddenly be no bread, no work, no electricity in local areas all around the world. You may suddenly see domestic pasta, but not imported pasta, for example. This will trigger panic buying of all goods, even goods that are not actually in short supply. So, as soon as you see a spot shortage like this, don't be surprised if there is one thing not there today, 10 things not there tomorrow, and 100 things not there the next day.

The freezing of credit may also cause specialty goods to suddenly be unavailable. For example, there may be plenty of toner cartridges for printers from Company X, but no toner cartridges for printers from Company Y.

What you need to do is walk around your workplace and walk around your house and look at ever single thing and ask yourself: "If I couldn't buy a replacement for that for the next 6 months, would something in my life come to a screeching halt?"

Particularly if it is something cheap.

There is a YouTube video in which a guy describes how his family went to their cabin and found that a rubber seal for the water pump had broken. So, they got in their car and drove 20 miles to buy a tiny piece of rubber. He realized how much gasoline was burned just to obtain that tiny piece of rubber, but without it, the pump would not work and there would be no water...

My cousin has an auto glass business. I called him and explained the potential for spot shortages, and I asked him if there was anything, particularly a cheap thing, that if he couldn't get, would result in complete paralysis of his business.
He said: "Adhesive! If we don't have the adhesive to glue in the windshields, we can't do any work at all!"
He is now preordering a lot of adhesive.

That is a good example of the kinds of things to think about. The shortages may start tomorrow or within a few weeks, but when they start, it will be ferocious beyond belief... something completely outside living memory.

If you couldn't buy food for a few weeks, how bad would that be?

I hope I am completely totally wrong about this and that everyone will be laughing at me in a few months... but how is it possible for global shipping to drop so suddenly without catastrophic consequences? See the following two articles.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/shipping-holed-beneath-the-waterline-995066.html


http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/international-trade-seizing-up-due-to.html

And then there is the problem of shipping containers being piled up in the wrong place. Since people cannot get the shipping containers, they cannot ship their goods.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=97001507

The shipbuilders are going bankrupt. The shipping companies are in danger of going the same way, and that is why this cannot be fixed overnight.

Persian Gulf states in serious downturn

"I don't know if anyone still believes in self-healing market forces... but the market is not self-healing... it is self-mutilating and manic-depressive..."
-Eckhard Wurtz

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=97027869

Ben Stein said...

Merrill Lynch is an incredibly well-run company... buy, buy, buy!

See video below.

Sounds like he knows as much about economics as he does about evolutionary biology.

Is there no end to the suffering Yale inflicts upon the world?

You have got to watch this...

More evidence that the world is run by idiots... And there is nothing funnier than sneering idiots when they turn out to be completely and totally wrong.

Sixty years ago

When I despair, I remember that all through history the ways of truth and love have always won.
There have been tyrants, and murderers, and for a time they can seem invincible, but in the end they always fail... always.

-Mahatma Ghandi



Satyagraha

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Living in a world of dominoes

No one knows, particularly the ones who are pretending they do, whether it is possible to remove each one of the dominoes without having them start to knock each other over. And before an earthquake happens.




Only 4 million? There are maybe 1 QUADRILLION dollars in derivatives lurking out there...


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/this-britain/the-domino-effect-road-to-recession-1012202.html

Demographics can overwhelm everything

Demographic changes can sometimes be so overwhelming that they trump almost everything else. A population in which the same number of babies is born every year (that is, one without baby booms or baby busts) is very efficient because, for example, no new schools need be built or be closed, and each generation transits through a static infrastructure.

The baby boomers were told they needed to stay invested in the stock market to grow their retirement money and to buy a house. One interpretation of the current financial crisis is that it is a hangover from massive lending by the boomers.

But this raises three important questions:

To whom will the stocks be sold when the boomers are old?

To whom will the boomers sell their houses to or reverse-mortgage their houses to?
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=96763713

If economic growth has, for the last century, run in tandem with oil/energy use, what will happen to growth if we walk blindly right into peak oil?

As the number of retirees swells, we can see that these problems may become the biggest considerations. And life extension and genetic engineering have not even kicked in yet. What will the demographics look like with changes like that?

Thursday, November 6, 2008

Quotes

"...a smashing repudiation of the hideous right-wing faction that has wreaked so much damage on the country" Glenn Greenwald

"Like so many people, I had to be with family and friends tonight. Some things must be shared with the people you love. We're in a state of delirium, disbelief and joy.
So many years of pain and exile and frustration ended. So much hope released. A black man president! A progressive, smart, compassionate man!" Gary Kamiya

"John McCain ... recognized the historic importance of Obama's victory, and 'the special significance that it has for African Americans, and the special pride that must be theirs tonight'. That hit me wrong: A lot of us have a special pride tonight." Joan Walsh

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

For these things, many people gave their lives

So that white people could marry people who are not white

So that people could vote

So that children could go to school

http://www.civilrightsmuseum.org/about/about.asp

Thank you for helping us rise up and live out the true meaning of our creed

From this



to this


I guess a lot of younger people might not have recognized him. He was only on the screen for a few seconds. The tears streaming down his face. That was it... I burst into tears.

We may not be free, but that day may yet come.

Thank you for helping to bring out the good in us.

http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2008/11/05/obama

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

An astrophotograph I took of the Sculptor Galaxy


This is just amazing! Give it a try. You can take a few photos for free.
http://www.global-rent-a-scope.com

One day more

And we will find what Heaven has in store.

And fate will rain down on us all....

Solar water heating is low-tech, cheap, and here now


We have had a solar water heater for 30 years now. No fuss, no muss. It cost $5,ooo in current dollars, and has saved us $30,000.

The freezing problem has been solved by using vacuum tubes. The units are so cheap, they are being mass-produced in China on a huge scale.

Solar Water Heating can reduce domestic water heating costs by as much as 65%.
Solar heated domestic water does not pollute or use valuable non-renewable resources. Even the pump to transport heat from the collectors to the storage tank is powered by the sun (depending on the model). Solar energy is a sound investment in everyone's future.
http://www.codellasolar.com/domestic.htm

Vote your...

Years ago, some OxBridge Tory said to me:

Vote your pocketbook!

I said to her:

Do you think that is what an election is about? About vote-buying? Do you think I care whether a few thousand dollars more or less wind up in my pocket?
This is about how to steer a nation, about how to get the most reasonable outcome for the most people.
Do you think this is a zero-sum game?

As I said, OxBridge and clueless...

Recession... no, really?

http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/03/news/economy/nabe_survey/index.htm?cnn=yes

Saturday, November 1, 2008

Credit Default Swaps are not being demonized

By using trigger words like "demonized", many people try to deflect criticism.

Let's put it this way: Credit Default Swaps gave the illusion of no risk.

"This is nothing more than an insurance contract and we treat it as though it has human qualities. You can't have a good or an evil insurance policy," said Roy Smith, professor of finance at the Stern School of Business at New York University.

"Do we sit around talking about the demon insurance companies who insure the hurricanes?" he asked. "Why not?"

Oh, but we do. We do ask about "demon" insurance companies that by insuring houses on the coast actually encourage people to build where their houses and their lives are at high risk. Because the catastrophes are rare, if the insurance company is lucky, it can go on for years or decades just taking in premiums and not paying out a single cent. What a racket! Until disaster strikes and they cannot pay, and there are a lot of dead people.

When people think there is no risk, they drive drunk, they build houses where they should not, they gamble, they make wars...

http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSTRE49U5SU20081031

Here comes the hurricane into the real economy

Volvo truck division sold 40,000 trucks in the third quarter of 2007.

In the same quarter of 2008, they sold 155 trucks.

A decrease of 99.5%.

Cheeta is still alive!


He is 76 years old! 万歳!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cheeta


Link