Wednesday, January 28, 2009

New York City fears return to 1970s

I was in NYC often in the late 70s, and it was way scary.

The superficial cleanup of Times Square pushed some of the problems out of view. Everything was based on a financial bubble that has now gone burst, with little prospect of reinflating.

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE50Q6IH20090127

The Earth has not always been like it is now

For most of its 4.5 billion years, the Earth is not some place you would want to live.
About half of that time, no oxygen.
Most of the time frozen in ice ages.

But for the last 10,000 years, the Earth's climate has been quite mild, probably because we cut down all the trees. Because there are only dry, academic records of what the Earth was like, and because it is so far out of living memory, no one can believe that it will not be like this forever.

A lot of carbon was sequestered underground millions of years ago. Then, in basically a single human lifetime, we unsequestered it and pumped all that carbon in the form of carbon dioxide back into the atmosphere. This was not a good idea.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16490-human-emissions-could-bring-irreversible-climate-chaos.html

Great BBC Radio 4 story on Arthur C. Clarke

http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/science/arthurcclarke.shtml

Cheap oil may be shortlived... take that road trip soon

... commodity analyst Jeffrey Currie said he expects a “swift and violent rebound” in energy prices in the second half of the year.

Oil prices may have reached their lowest point already, after falling to $32.40 in mid-December, and are expected to rise to $65 by the end of this year...

Comet Lulin

On the night of February 23rd, near its peak brightness, Comet Lulin is passing 2° south-southwest of Saturn.

http://www.skyandtelescope.com/observing/highlights/35992534.html

The United States and the United Kingdom on brink of largest debt crisis in history

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/01/some-thoughts-on-debt-disaster-in-us.html

The pound has crashed, and the crash continues

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/01/pound-sinks-as-britain-teeters-on-edge.html

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/jim-rogers-sell-any-sterling-you-might-have-its-finished-1452384.html

The Shipping News is not good

http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm

RBS could really blow up around June when someone figures out exactly what the hell they were doing

Before he was unceremoniously fired as chief executive of Royal Bank of Scotland, Sir Fred Goodwin often said that he had turned the 280-year-old institution into "a sausage machine".
RBS, like other banks, was buying and selling pre-packaged parcels of debt, which started out as mortgages and loans but were put through a corporate mincer and wrapped into packages containing small pieces of hundreds, if not thousands, of loans. Rather like sausages, no one could be entirely sure what was in them – but as long as they paid a decent rate of interest and the bonuses kept flowing, no one cared.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/4325899/Financial-crisis-just-how-big-is-Britains-toxic-debt.html

Blago thinks like this

"If you do an exchange of one for the other, that's wrong," he told ABC's "Nightline." "But if you have discussions about the future and down the road and what you might want to do once you're no longer governor in a few years, what's wrong with that?"

Ah, it is still bribery, just with delayed payment?

Thursday, January 22, 2009

Birds don't strike planes

I agree with the NPR listener who said that since birds fly at several tens of miles per hour, whereas planes fly at several hundreds of miles per hour, it is not that birds strike planes, but rather that planes strike birds.

We do not say that a pedestrian struck a car.

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Silly people say don't talk about things that matter

When people are being killed and my own life and the lives of my friends are being ruined, there is something wrong with pointing out what the problems are? This is our fault?

The final defense of the true coward:
"You are so mean! Why don't you forgive me even if I deny all culpability?"

Starbuck seems to think reality is a 50s TV show

He seems to think that there is only one way to tell a story: All movies and TV shows should be Disney.

It is like complaining that bonsai trees are small or Thai food is hot.

Why don't you just select what you want?

Old Battlestar is the way it is; new Battlestar is the way it is. If you don't like it, don't watch.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/herocomplex/2009/01/the-original-st.html

The Misunderestimator and the henchmen

Thank the 2D-Planck-pixels-at-the-edge-of-the-Universe they are gone!
How much damage. How much suffering. How many lives ruined. How many dead.

When they came out, I said to a friend, "CNN has cut the mics because there is booing..."
He said, "I don't hear any booing"
"Yes", I said, "we don't hear anything at all... because they cut the mics outside."

If you go to YouTube and search for videos taken by cell phone outside, you will hear the chorus.

Some, such as former White House aide Suhail Khan, opted to stay in town and witness firsthand the historic transition, even though it meant hearing rebukes from the new president and worse from the inaugural crowd.
"The one sorry note were the boos" for President Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney and Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr., said Khan, who was among a group of former Bush aides standing a short distance from Barack Obama as he was sworn in by Roberts.

On one hand we have eight years of unbelievable damage; on the other we have 10 seconds of booing... and the problem is... the booing? Of course. Aw, we hurt dare feewings. Khan is just another genetically stupid enabler and traitor who will be that way until she dies.



You know why everyone booed?

Because Stupid was too far away to throw shoes.

Saturday, January 17, 2009

Baking soda really is amazing

I used to buy expensive cleaners for the bath, etc., but the chlorine really is not good for you, and I broke out in a rash, so I tried old-fashioned cleaners like baking soda... IT IS TOTALLY AMAZING! Instead of oven cleaner, I sprayed on water and sprinkled on baking soda, and I let it sit for a few hours... all the grease came off and could just be wiped away!

Thursday, January 15, 2009

Too much caffiene can cause hallucinations

People who consume coffee and other caffeinated products are more likely to have hallucinations, according to a study published today.

The more caffeine students had, the more likely they were to hear voices, smell things and see things that were not there, researchers at Durham University found. They suggested that increased levels of the hormone cortisol caused by caffeine could be behind the link.

Although caffeine found in coffee, tea and chocolate can cause heart palpitations, there is patchy evidence of a relationship to psychotic behaviour such as schizophrenia.

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-wellbeing/health-news/coffee-linked-to-hallucinations-1334727.html

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Not actually falling off a cliff

More like the end of Hook, Line, and Sinker... Jerry Lewis thinks he is dying, goes on a credit-fueled spending spree, and then finds out he is not dying for quite some time...

Like house prices in California, which are perceived as
"falling 40 percent last year, and falling another 30 percent this year",
instead of
"tripled in just eight years due to excess funny money in a bubble, producing an average price of $600,000, which was not real, and are now returning to historical norms (i.e., reality)".

So it is in the UK
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7825213.stm

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

The Nature of The Problem

Jesse very eloquently explains what I usually express as, "OMG, they are so stupid, it is amazing they can remember to breathe".

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/01/defense-of-economics.html

Sunday, January 4, 2009

The inherent problem

We are in the midst of the worst financial crisis since the 1930s. The salient feature of the crisis is that it was not caused by some external shock like OPEC raising the price of oil. It was generated by the financial system itself. This fact - a defect inherent in the system - contradicts the generally accepted theory that financial markets tend toward equilibrium and deviations from the equilibrium occur either in a random manner or are caused by some sudden external event to which markets have difficulty in adjusting. The current approach to market regulation has been based on this theory, but the severity and amplitude of the crisis proves convincingly that there is something fundamentally wrong with it.

--George Soros

Saturday, January 3, 2009

This goes much deeper than the failure of the financial system

Nearly everything in the world we live in is artificial, made by the hands of humans.

The default condition of humans is unclothed, malnourished, plagued by disease; no electricity, no running water, no sanitation; illiterate, profoundly ignorant, and crushed by the misunderstanding of causalities.

Therefore, the question of management of the world is crucial if we wish to continue to live in this Earthly near-Paradise some of us find ourselves in. Overregulation is suffocating and silly. But as we have seen, no regulation is a disaster even for the Reaganites and Thatcherites who foisted their ideas on everyone (and who called everyone who opposed them stupid while they were at it). Between "all" and "none" there is a Shangri-La of moderation, ever-shifting though it may be.

What is really being played out now is the question of whether ideology is a good guide for how to run the world.

In science, one of the most dangerous things is the plausible just-so story that turns out to be plain, flat-out wrong. It took humans a very long time to learn how to notice conceptual errors and how to discard them. This is why application of scientific methods did not happen in a substantial way in our everyday lives until just the last few hundred years.

http://www.salon.com/tech/feature/2009/01/02/economy_2008/
2008 was a very bad year for ordinary Americans in real, cash-on-the-barrelhead terms. But it was also an awful year for market fundamentalists, deregulators, supply-siders and acolytes of Milton Friedman and Ayn Rand. Their three-decade-long party is over.

... there is no ignoring the sacred cow that lies gutted, innards steaming, on the altar. In 2008, we witnessed a market failure of epic proportions. Whatever moral authority the deregulators thought they might have had -- that sense of superiority that came from the calm confidence that their interpretation of how the world works is the correct one -- is gone. Politics will not be the same for a generation.

The story of how a particular kind of mortgage loan proved to be the undoing of Wall Street and the catalyst for the end of a period of sustained global economic growth is at once insanely complex and, by now, almost too familiar. We now know that dereliction of duty ran rampant at every step of the chain. Mortgage borrowers lied about their income. Mortgage lenders failed to check the credit-worthiness of borrowers. Banks restructured loans into derivative instruments that obscured the underlying liabilities. Credit rating agencies -- dependent on fees from the very institutions whose products they were supposed to be judging -- gave the newfangled securities gold-plated ratings. Government regulators looked the other way. We now know that the incentives built into the system encouraged every individual actor to act in defiance of economic rationality.

We now know, in other words, that left to themselves, economic actors do not pursue rational, sustainable courses of action. Greed and self-interest will steer you into the ditch every time.

... If there is one lesson to take from 2008 it is that the majority of analysts, economists and Wall Street financiers were flat-out wrong. Instead of redistributing risk to make us safer, they tied the whole world up into such a tightly wound ball of interconnections that when one piece of the system broke, the repercussions spread everywhere, immediately.

--Andrew Leonard

The Patron Saint of Wall Street




Charles Ponzi

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Ponzi

Friday, January 2, 2009

Some people just cannot change...

Most people have pretty strange idees fixes that are impervious to evidence, common sense, and all counterarguments. These ideas are usually harmless and merely annoying.

However, some people latch onto an idea and will not give it up no matter what until it literally kills them, and worse, kills others.

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/story?id=6558202&page=1

This is why, when you find people like this, instead of wasting your time trying to help them understand why they are wrong, just give up. They will die before you can get them there.

Similarly, Dr. Duesberg will wind up the same way and will continue to kill people.

I mean, it has even started to dawn on w...

Thursday, January 1, 2009

Aquapel windshield treatment looks good

My mom never cleans her car, so the waterspots on the windshield were horrendous, really impairing visibility.

When I had a car (and I am glad I haven't had one in 20 years), I would always use a silicone treatment for the windshield.

See this comparison of Aquapel on the left, no treatment in the middle, and Rain X on the right.

http://www.jwardell.com/mini/media/06/aquapel.mp4

http://www.jwardell.com/mini/2006/04/11/rain-x-vs-aquapel/

The difference between cheap and frugal

Cheap is eating junk food... frugal is cooking for yourself and discovering that a good meal costs about 2 dollars and a little of your time.
http://www.wisebread.com/

How to drastically reduce the amount of cancer-causing chemicals produced when you cook meat

Of course, the simplest thing is to be vegetarian, but if you are going to eat meat, particularly fried or grilled meat, the solution is simple and tasty: marinade the meat before cooking.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20126883.400-beer-marinade-cuts-steak-cancer-risk.html

Why did it take so long for oxygen to build up in the Earth's atmosphere?

Because there wasn't much dry land, so there wasn't much runoff sediment to bury carbon.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20126882.600-ancient-earth-was-a-barren-waterworld.html

Why did it take so long for life to move onto land?

Because there wasn't much dry land.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20126882.600-ancient-earth-was-a-barren-waterworld.html

The Quants and the Bean Counters

When
the Quants (quatitative experts), who are high functioning autistics (Ausperger's Syndrome; think Bill Gates) who, like Dustin Hoffman's character in Rainman, can perform superhuman mathematics... but alas, have no idea what it means
meet
the Bean Counters, who, as explained in Liar's Poker, might be bright, but have no particular ability in finance...

The blind and deaf lead the blind and deaf, resulting in the year 2009 that we are about to experience.

April 2-5, 2009

To commemorate the 400th anniversary of Galileo using the telescope, 100 Hours of Astronomy hopes to have as many people as possible look through a telescope in early April.

If you have a 'scope, take it out!

I do not understand why so many people still think this crash is due to subprime loans...

It is the hangover from the credit boom that created huge malinvestment in all manner of things... The only reason I can think of that someone would focus on the subprime loans, which are a small part of the problem and were merely the trigger, is to absolve themselves of any responsibility for what is happening. How typical. I am sure they use PCs and are rigid, and I can guess for whom they vote.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/12/krugman-still-wrong-after-all-these.html

Best YouTube videos of 2008

And some of them are howlers...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/12/27/youtubes-best-of-2008-top_n_152862.html

The American Experience online for free!

Many, many episodes of the American Experience now online for free!
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/

One of my friends, who had just lost his job, said...

"I would like to thank the bankers for reaching out across the ocean and ruining my life."

The compact fluorescent bulbs are finally good and cheap

I bought a number of types of compact fluorescent bulbs recently and was just astonished at how good and how cheap they have become.

I like warm white or soft white ones, and hate the cool white ones because they are too blue and make people look like ghosts.

The fluorescent spotlights cost a few dollars more, but they are well worth the price! I replaced a 75 watt incandescent bulb with an 11 watt spotlight, and it was much brighter than the incandescent. Leaving it on all night costs about 2 cents.

One drawback is that if fluorescents are cold, they start off dim and slowly become brighter as they warm up. If a light is turned on and off frequently, and if you need it to come on full brightness immediately, you should probably just leave the incandescent.

So the basic things you need to decide are:

Will you turn that light on and off frequently (as opposed to turning it on once a day and leaving it on for hours), and does the light need to come on at full brightness immediately?
If so, just leave the incandescent in. If not, replace as soon as possible, and certainly replace before next summer comes.

Is the switch that controls that light just an 0n-off switch, or is it a dimmer?
Buy regular compact fluorescents for on-off switches, but buy dimmable compact fluorescents (which are more expensive) for use with dimmers.

Choose warm white or soft white, unless you prefer cool white. Warm white and soft white have light most similar to incandescent light.

If you have a socket facing downward, it might be worth trying a compact fluorescent spotlight. You will find that it is much brighter, and you may be able to replace a 75 watt or 100 watt incandescent with an 11 watt (equivalent light to a 60 watt incandescent) spotlight and actually have more light where you need it.

Before buying a lot of them, it would be best to buy, for example, a few giving the equivalent light of 40 watt, 60 watt, 75 watt, and 100 watt incandescents, and a couple of different spotlights. Try them out, and then you will have a better feel for how many of each you need.

If you buy them in bulk, they can cost as little as a couple of dollars each.

As goes oil, so goes natural gas

The era of cheap [natural] gas is coming to an end, Russia's Prime Minister Vladimir Putin told ministers from the world's major gas-exporting countries.

Mr Putin said the cost of extracting [natural] gas was rising sharply, and therefore "the era of cheap energy resources, of cheap gas, is of course coming to an end".

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7796806.stm

Happy New Year!

It is the Year 3962 as counted from 1953 BCE.



The Sun (visible right below the transparent horizon), the Moon, Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, and Saturn were all grouped closely together in the dawn sky at the beginning of spring. All of the hands of the celestial clockwork set to zero!

Click on the image to make it bigger.