Thursday, May 14, 2009

The AAA sky must be falling

Standard & Poors says something other than everything is AAA and okeydokey? What's next? Rating agencies might actually objectively rate things? Useless on the way up and on the way down when the entity being rated can shop around until some agency gives them the wink-wink-nudge-nudge rating that is desired.

I don't know whether to be cynical and think someone is trying to short something, or this helps the banks further unwind CDSs, or something, or whether Jesse is on to something.

Jesse's excellent American Cafe (see bottommost link) expects the US crisis to resemble the recent crises in ARGENTINA and RUSSIA rather than the lost decade in Japan.

ARGENTINA
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_economic_crisis
Argentine peso dropped 80 percent.
Inflation per MONTH in Argentina
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Monthly_inflation_in_Argentina,_2002.png

RUSSIA
On August 13, 1998, the Russian stock, bond, and currency markets collapsed on fears that the government would devalue the ruble, default on domestic debt, or both. From January to August the stock market lost 75 percent of its value, 39 percent in the month of May alone.
On September 2 the Central Bank of the Russian Federation allowed the ruble to float freely.
By September 21 the ruble had lost 70 percent of its value.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Russian_financial_crisis


Jesse: There will be serious discussion with regard to the annexation of Canada and Mexico into a North American government as the crisis worsens. Mexico should adopt a silver monetary standard and Canada must find its own economic independence again as it did in the Great Depression.

Jesse: Export dependent countries [Japan, China, Germany, who else?] should begin to prepare for a collapse in the US import markets... earlier than 2010.


http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/05/us-dollar-rally-will-end-in-currency.html

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